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  • Originally posted by ibleed View Post

    Really quick: for context lest there be confusiom on where I stamd- I really don't care about anyone's vaccination status. I'm not going to tell anyone to NOT get it. I'm also not going to demand anybody be fired/shamed/discriminated against if they don't get it. I think older folks and those with health issies shpuld get it. The rest can decide for themselves and I won't judge one way or the other.

    That said....

    For months, we've been getting told to just get it and you can go back to normal....but that's not what is happening. No matter what vaccine milestone gets hit, "back to normal" never happens...something ELSE has to happen first. It's always something ELSE.

    The question that many people are asking now is "If I have to do everything I've been doing BEFORE getting vaccinated AFTER getting vaccinated...what's the point?"

    I think that's a perfectly valid question.
    The delta variant is killing healthier people in their 30s-60s with fewer medical problems. The vaccine can save these people's lives and lessen the chances of lifelong debilitation from organ damage (mainly lungs) due to COVID.

    If more people had gotten the vaccine when it was first available we might not have seen the delta surge change the entire game and normal life might have been a possibility sooner. Unfortunately not enough people got vaccinated and here we are.

    The point of getting vaccinated is to keep the virus from spreading in the community and infecting the unvaccinated or those who do not have approved ways to get vaccinated (allergies or kids under 12). Fewer infections means fewer chances for new variants to be created that could potentially be resistant to the current vaccines.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by samnite View Post

      The delta variant is killing healthier people in their 30s-60s with fewer medical problems. The vaccine can save these people's lives and lessen the chances of lifelong debilitation from organ damage (mainly lungs) due to COVID.

      If more people had gotten the vaccine when it was first available we might not have seen the delta surge change the entire game and normal life might have been a possibility sooner. Unfortunately not enough people got vaccinated and here we are.

      The point of getting vaccinated is to keep the virus from spreading in the community and infecting the unvaccinated or those who do not have approved ways to get vaccinated (allergies or kids under 12). Fewer infections means fewer chances for new variants to be created that could potentially be resistant to the current vaccines.
      I seriously doubt that higher vaccination would have stopped delta from emerging. The variant emerged during the early rollout so it's probable that was already running around even before then. Delta was coming regardless of how many got vaccinated.

      Some people have questions about the long term effects of the vaccine. There's risks involved with the vaccine as there are with the infection itself. For all we know, we'll be seeing one of those silly commercials in the future of "Did you take the J&J vaccine and get uncontrollable bloody anal fissures? Call our lawfirm!!!!". That's a valid concern as well.

      My thought is, if you feel the risks of catching covid are great enough for you, get vaccinated. If you fear catching it from someone, get it. If you think you're gonna die if you catch it, get it. I wont bother you about it. I wont tell you NOT to get it. If you accept the risk that comes with not getting the vaccine, fine. I wont bother you about that either.

      I'm getting tired of this narrative that if you just get vaccinated, we'll go back to normal. It's bullshit. There's always going to be something else required.

      We have to find out how to carry on.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by ibleed View Post

        I seriously doubt that higher vaccination would have stopped delta from emerging. The variant emerged during the early rollout so it's probable that was already running around even before then. Delta was coming regardless of how many got vaccinated.

        Some people have questions about the long term effects of the vaccine. There's risks involved with the vaccine as there are with the infection itself. For all we know, we'll be seeing one of those silly commercials in the future of "Did you take the J&J vaccine and get uncontrollable bloody anal fissures? Call our lawfirm!!!!". That's a valid concern as well.

        My thought is, if you feel the risks of catching covid are great enough for you, get vaccinated. If you fear catching it from someone, get it. If you think you're gonna die if you catch it, get it. I wont bother you about it. I wont tell you NOT to get it. If you accept the risk that comes with not getting the vaccine, fine. I wont bother you about that either.

        I'm getting tired of this narrative that if you just get vaccinated, we'll go back to normal. It's bullshit. There's always going to be something else required.

        We have to find out how to carry on.
        Vaccination would have saved many lives. People worry about long-term effects of the vaccine but they don't consider that they could catch covid and die or suffer long-term effects from COVID itself. We don't know the long-term effects of COVID even if you get an asymptomatic infection.

        There are billions who have been vaccinated by this point and the real world data of the patients suffering the worst strongly indicate that the unvaccinated are suffering more than the vaccinated. The risk/benefit analysis at this point would seem to support getting vaccinated especially since we have even more data with time regarding the side effect profile of the vaccine.

        Delta was allowed to spread further among the unvaccinated and is better able to replicate and therefore infect more people. If more had been vaccinated earlier then delta's effect on the population would have been lessened due to less spread. We actually hit a point in June at my hospital where we had zero patients requiring COVID isolation. 2 months later we were hitting record highs worse than the peak of 2020. Now with more people getting vaccinated we are starting to see a slight improvement in the number of cases but will this last? Are we just waiting for the next variant to take hold among the unvaccinated? What if that variant is more deadly for children who can't get vaccinated?

        People want to get back to normal. Doctors and nurses are tired of this pandemic. People who need medical care for non-covid reasons are tired of the pandemic diverting resources and tying up hospital beds. I have had patients unable to transfer to other hospitals because those hospitals are full due to COVID and can't accept new patients.

        The vaccine is literally the best thing humans have been able to devise to end the pandemic and get back to normal life.

        Comment


        • The Seven Symptoms That Best Predict COVID


          F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE

          September 28, 2021

          This transcript has been edited for clarity.

          Welcome to Impact Factor, your weekly dose of commentary on a new medical study. I'm Dr. F. Perry Wilson of the Yale School of Medicine.

          This week, we're going to talk about COVID symptoms. I know — we're almost 2 years into this pandemic; why do we need to talk about symptoms now? The short answer is because testing isn't ubiquitous enough. We need to know what symptoms are sensitive and specific for COVID in order to know who should be tested or potentially isolated. And with respiratory virus season around the corner, identifying COVID-specific symptoms is more important than ever.

          One problem with figuring out what symptoms are seen in COVID is that most studies look at people who test positive for COVID, and most people get tested when they have symptoms.




          This means certain symptoms might become an almost self-fulfilling prophecy. The only way around this is to do random, population-based screening for COVID, and that is exactly what this paper, appearing in PLOS Medicine, does.

          Throughout the pandemic, the National Health Service in England has been doing random COVID prevalence surveys throughout the country, testing a subset of their population regardless of symptom status, to figure out where the disease is and where it is going. I know — it must be nice, right? This particular paper looks at successive samples during the first "wild-type" surge of cases in England and then the subsequent alpha variant outbreak.

          Participants completed a survey reporting symptoms over the past 4 weeks and the list was broad, as you can see.




          Then, a PCR test was performed.

          Now, since this was a general population sample, you won't be surprised to see that the positivity rate was pretty low; just around 4000 individuals out of 1 million tested positive. And the presence of any of these symptoms was strongly associated with COVID-19.




          But the math here is quirky. Since symptoms are rare in the general population, the majority of the COVID cases were actually in asymptomatic people.




          The take-home here is that asymptomatic (or at least presymptomatic) COVID is real and common. But also that symptoms still make it more likely that you actually have COVID.

          But this is any symptom. The paper breaks down the whole panoply of potential symptoms to see which are more strongly associated with COVID than others. All of the symptoms on the list made COVID more likely, but this figure shows which were most strongly associated.




          Loss of taste and smell were dramatic, strong predictors of disease, outstripping fever, chills, muscle aches, and even persistent cough.

          No big surprises in the rest of the list, though "heavy arms and legs" is not one I've heard of before.

          The authors used a statistical technique known as LASSO regression to create a multivariable model of symptoms that would help to predict disease. They tuned the model to be parsimonious — to select only the most important symptoms — and they found seven that, together, might be used to better target scarce testing resources.

          Here are those seven, and there are some interesting things to learn here.




          First, you'll note that the two most powerful predictors of PCR positivity were loss of smell and loss of taste.




          That both of these symptoms were selected by the model is a bit surprising, as one of the advantages of LASSO is that it tends not to select highly correlated variables. Since loss of taste is usually due, in reality, to loss of smell, these variables should be quite correlated. But self-report is a mysterious thing, and it is conceivable that some patients simply don't register the loss of smell in the same way they notice the loss of taste or vice versa. Still, if there were one symptom to rule them all, it would be one of these.

          Cough and fever and chills are no surprise, but the appearance of loss of appetite this high up on the predictive power hierarchy is worth consideration. I have definitely seen this with multiple COVID patients, though we often don't keep it in our list of major symptoms. Maybe we should.

          Kids with COVID had a slightly different symptom profile than adults, with headache replacing persistent cough among the top seven symptoms — which has important implications for deciding when to screen schoolchildren. It's also worth noting that, in kids, the presence of a runny nose slightly reduced the risk of a positive COVID test.




          The authors also provide evidence that different variants have different constellations of symptoms, with Alpha having more sore throat, cough, fever, nausea, and vomiting than the wild-type variant. No data in this study on Delta, though.

          But here's the main issue with using symptoms in this way to guide testing. Symptoms are a product of the constellation of things that cause those symptoms that exists at any given point of time. As we mask and distance less, and other respiratory viruses creep back into the populace, the specificity for a cough or a fever being COVID and not flu or something else will decrease. This is why the only real answer to "Who should we test for COVID?" is "anyone." Testing needs to be ubiquitous because even a statistical model based on a constellation of symptoms may only be an effective screening tool in the context in which it was derived. Aside from loss of smell and taste, which do seem to be particularly COVID-ish, the symptoms of COVID are just like those of every other respiratory virus, only more so.

          F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE, is an associate professor of medicine and director of Yale's Clinical and Translational Research Accelerator. His science communication work can be found in the Huffington Post, on NPR, and here on Medscape. He tweets @fperrywilson and hosts a repository of his communication work at www.methodsman.com.

          Follow Medscape on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube

          Credits:
          Image 1: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE
          Image 2: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE
          Image 3: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE
          Image 4: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE
          Image 5: Elliott J, et al. PLoS Med. 2021;18(9):e1003777. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003777
          Image 6: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE
          Image 7: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE
          Image 8: F. Perry Wilson, MD, MSCE

          Medscape © 2021 WebMD, LLC

          Comment




          • Originally posted by ibleed View Post

            I seriously doubt that higher vaccination would have stopped delta from emerging. The variant emerged during the early rollout so it's probable that was already running around even before then. Delta was coming regardless of how many got vaccinated.

            Some people have questions about the long term effects of the vaccine. There's risks involved with the vaccine as there are with the infection itself. For all we know, we'll be seeing one of those silly commercials in the future of "Did you take the J&J vaccine and get uncontrollable bloody anal fissures? Call our lawfirm!!!!". That's a valid concern as well.

            My thought is, if you feel the risks of catching covid are great enough for you, get vaccinated. If you fear catching it from someone, get it. If you think you're gonna die if you catch it, get it. I wont bother you about it. I wont tell you NOT to get it. If you accept the risk that comes with not getting the vaccine, fine. I wont bother you about that either.

            I'm getting tired of this narrative that if you just get vaccinated, we'll go back to normal. It's bullshit. There's always going to be something else required.

            We have to find out how to carry on.
            Just stop you fucking idiot

            There is no smallpox today in the US because everybody has been vaccinated

            Covid is the mot infectious disease because it spreads through respiration. Smallpox ebola and hiv only spread through direct contact and ingestion of bodily fluids.

            I know what you are getting at ibleed
            You are trying to say Trump was right, no need to wear masks and if you get covid you'll die if its your unlucky day.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by ibleed View Post

              I seriously doubt that higher vaccination would have stopped delta from emerging. The variant emerged during the early rollout so it's probable that was already running around even before then. Delta was coming regardless of how many got vaccinated.

              Some people have questions about the long term effects of the vaccine. There's risks involved with the vaccine as there are with the infection itself. For all we know, we'll be seeing one of those silly commercials in the future of "Did you take the J&J vaccine and get uncontrollable bloody anal fissures? Call our lawfirm!!!!". That's a valid concern as well.

              My thought is, if you feel the risks of catching covid are great enough for you, get vaccinated. If you fear catching it from someone, get it. If you think you're gonna die if you catch it, get it. I wont bother you about it. I wont tell you NOT to get it. If you accept the risk that comes with not getting the vaccine, fine. I wont bother you about that either.

              I'm getting tired of this narrative that if you just get vaccinated, we'll go back to normal. It's bullshit. There's always going to be something else required.

              We have to find out how to carry on.
              Let the unvaccinated that get sick care for themselves in isolated places without modern healthcare

              Comment


              • Originally posted by ibleed View Post

                Really quick: for context lest there be confusiom on where I stamd- I really don't care about anyone's vaccination status. I'm not going to tell anyone to NOT get it. I'm also not going to demand anybody be fired/shamed/discriminated against if they don't get it. I think older folks and those with health issies shpuld get it. The rest can decide for themselves and I won't judge one way or the other.

                That said....

                For months, we've been getting told to just get it and you can go back to normal....but that's not what is happening. No matter what vaccine milestone gets hit, "back to normal" never happens...something ELSE has to happen first. It's always something ELSE.

                The question that many people are asking now is "If I have to do everything I've been doing BEFORE getting vaccinated AFTER getting vaccinated...what's the point?"

                I think that's a perfectly valid question.
                Just throwing this out there...I haven't heard or read that anywhere.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ibleed View Post

                  I seriously doubt the words of a doctor who deals with this shit everyday.
                  Interesting stance.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ivegostdacityblues View Post


                    Vaccinated people spread the virus at a lesser rate than unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people who get COVID are far less likely to become hospitalized and clog up the ICU than unvaccinated people. The second is the biggest reason some areas can’t go back to normal.
                    This. But he wants to stick to his talking point about what vaccinated people have done.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by BChris View Post

                      This. But he wants to stick to his talking point about what vaccinated people have done.

                      The unvaccinated want the personal choice of not having to do what experts in modern medicine want them to do…until their life is on the line and they want to take all the modern medical remedies that there are.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ivegostdacityblues View Post


                        The unvaccinated want the personal choice of not having to do what experts in modern medicine want them to do…until their life is on the line and they want to take all the modern medical remedies that there are.
                        Yup. Seen too many stories of them begging for the vaccine while in the ICU. Not how shit works, sorry.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by ivegostdacityblues View Post


                          The unvaccinated want the personal choice of not having to do what experts in modern medicine want them to do…until their life is on the line and they want to take all the modern medical remedies that there are.
                          See post 1208.

                          Comment


                          • Merck to Seek FDA OK for Its COVID Pill After Trial Stopped Early


                            By Deena Beasley

                            October 01, 2021

                            [IMG]https://img.medscapestatic.com/publication/logo-reutersprofessional.gif?interpolation=lanczos-none&resize=*:85[/IMG]
                            • Add to Email Alerts

                            (Reuters) - Merck & Co Inc's experimental oral drug for COVID-19, molnupiravir, reduced by around 50% the chance of hospitalization or death for patients at risk of severe disease, according to interim clinical trial results announced on Friday.

                            Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics plan to seek U.S. emergency use authorization for the pill as soon as possible, and to submit applications to regulatory agencies worldwide. Due to the positive results, the Phase 3 trial is being stopped early at the recommendation of outside monitors.

                            "This is going to change the dialogue around how to manage COVID-19," Robert Davis, Merck's chief executive officer, told Reuters.

                            If authorized, molnupiravir, which is designed to introduce errors into the genetic code of the virus, would be the first oral antiviral medication for COVID-19.

                            The news sent Merck's shares up almost 8% in pre-market New York trading.

                            Rivals including Pfizer Inc and Swiss pharmaceutical Roche Holding AG are racing to develop an easy-to-administer antiviral pill for COVID-19 but so far, only antibody cocktails, which have to be given intravenously, are approved for treating non-hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

                            A planned interim analysis of 775 patients in Merck's study found that 7.3% of those given molnupiravir were either hospitalized or had died by 29 days after treatment, compared with 14.1% of placebo patients. There were no deaths in the molnupiravir group, but there were eight deaths of placebo patients.

                            "Antiviral treatments that can be taken at home to keep people with COVID-19 out of the hospital are critically needed,” Wendy Holman, Ridgeback's CEO, said in a statement.

                            Scientists welcomed the potential new treatment to help prevent serious illness from the virus, which has killed almost 5 million people around the world.

                            "The availability of a well-tolerated, effective oral antiviral will be particularly useful in supplementing vaccination as a means to reduce the proportion of patients needing hospital care," Professor Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London.

                            In the trial, which enrolled patients around the world, molnupiravir was taken every 12 hours for five days.

                            The study enrolled patients with laboratory-confirmed mild-to-moderate COVID-19, who had symptoms for no more than five days. All patients had at least one risk factor associated with poor disease outcome, such as obesity or older age.

                            Merck said viral sequencing done so far shows molnupiravir is effective against all variants of the coronavirus, including highly transmissible Delta.

                            The company said rates of adverse events were similar for both molnupiravir and placebo patients, but did not give details of the side effects.

                            Merck has said data shows molnupiravir is not capable of inducing genetic changes in human cells, but men enrolled in its trials have to abstain from heterosexual intercourse or agree to use contraception. Women of child-bearing age cannot be pregnant and also have to use birth control.

                            Merck said it expects to produce 10 million courses of the treatment by the end of 2021, with more doses coming next year.

                            The company has a U.S. government contract to supply 1.7 million courses of molnupiravir at a price of $700 per course.

                            CEO Davis said Merck has similar agreements with other governments worldwide, and is in talks with more. The company said it plans to implement a tiered pricing approach based on country income criteria.

                            Merck has also agreed to license the drug to several India-based generic drugmakers, which would be able to supply the treatment to low- and middle-income countries.

                            Molnupiravir is also being studied in a Phase 3 trial for preventing coronavirus infection in people exposed to the virus.

                            Merck officials said it is unclear how long the FDA review of the drug will take.

                            "I believe that they are going to try to work with alacrity on this," said Dean Li, head of Merck's research labs.
                            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            US COVID-19 Deaths Level Off as Delta Variant Surge Drops


                            Carolyn Crist

                            October 01, 2021

                            [IMG]https://img.medscapestatic.com/publication/WebMD_117x28.gif?interpolation=lanczos-none&resize=*:85[/IMG]
                            Editor's note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape's Coronavirus Resource Center.

                            COVID-19 deaths are beginning to plateau in the US, adding another promising sign that the latest coronavirus surge has peaked.

                            The 7-day average of daily deaths has hovered around 2000 for more than a week and dropped below 1900 on Thursday. The trend follows a 2-month climb in deaths as the Delta variant hit unvaccinated populations, particularly in Arkansas, Florida, and Louisiana.

                            Now, the Delta variant surge has moved to the northern part of the country, with hot spots in Idaho, Montana, and Maine. But as case numbers drop in populous Southern states such as Florida, the daily death toll should continue to decline, The Wall Street Journal reported.

                            COVID-19 cases began to level off nationally in early September, and hospitalizations and deaths have followed a similar trend several weeks later.

                            The US reported about 84,500 additional COVID-19 deaths in August and September, which is more than four times the number of known coronavirus deaths from June and July, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

                            The US has now reported nearly 698,000 COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic, surpassing the 675,000 US deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic. The US population is about three times larger now, the newspaper reported.

                            Globally, COVID-19 cases and deaths continue to decline, according to a weekly update from the World Health Organization. More than 3.3 million new cases and 55,000 new deaths were reported worldwide during the past week, marking a 10% drop in both, compared with the week before.

                            The largest decreases in cases were reported in the Middle East, the Western Pacific region, and the Americas, the WHO reported.

                            New weekly deaths declined about 15% in all areas except for the European region, which had a similar number of deaths as the week before, and the African region, which had a 5% increase.

                            The WHO first reported a substantial decrease in cases in mid-September, with declines seen in all areas of the world. It was the first time in more than 2 months that cases had fallen.

                            At the same time, the WHO warned there may be more COVID-19 spikes as the Northern Hemisphere enters colder months, when people spend more time indoors.

                            Comment


                            • USA has hit 700k deaths. 200k since the vaccines became available.

                              People dying today are the ones the nation needed to get rid of anyway
                              Last edited by sctrojan; 10-03-2021, 09:18 PM.

                              Comment


                              • Los Angeles leaders on Wednesday were poised to enact one of the nation’s strictest vaccine mandates — a sweeping measure that would require the shots for everyone entering a bar, restaurant, nail salon, gym or even a Lakers game.

                                🕺🕺🕺

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