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  • #16
    Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

    My takeaway from this is a little different, I guess. I think what this person is saying has merit, but I think they’re underestimating just how fast the economy is changing. This whole idea that you have to be in a particular place to do a particular thing is quickly becoming outdated. Sure, you’re always going to have a certain percentage of jobs where people have to be physically present with one another, but how high is that percentage really? People are already receiving an increasingly large share of their medical and mental health care from remote sources, and I don’t even need to talk about purchasing consumer goods.

    Will the American city “die”? Probably not entirely, but I could certainly see them continuing to shrink as a share of the U.S. population and warp into something resembling large scale amusement parks.
    The city isn’t going to die. But your second level cities will fade while third and forth tiers expand.

    Look at the growth places like Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, and Charlotte are seeing. Absolutely booming. Companies know that the hot young minds want walkable city experiences. They can’t attract people to bumfuck Kansas but they can move from DC to Nashville (see Discovery/Scripps) and save a fuckload on overhead while still having that same city draw in a much more affordable location.

    New York, LA, San Fran, DC, Atlanta, Chicago will always be major players.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Foster4Prez View Post

      The city isn’t going to die. But your second level cities will fade while third and forth tiers expand.

      Look at the growth places like Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, and Charlotte are seeing. Absolutely booming. Companies know that the hot young minds want walkable city experiences. They can’t attract people to bumfuck Kansas but they can move from DC to Nashville (see Discovery/Scripps) and save a fuckload on overhead while still having that same city draw in a much more affordable location.

      New York, LA, San Fran, DC, Atlanta, Chicago will always be major players.
      I don’t disagree with your perspective in the short term, but you have to ask yourself why those cities are actually growing. It’s not economic activity, an exciting night life, or any of that, it’s because people can effectively live a big city lifestyle there for a fraction of the price. You know first hand that trying to raise a family in DC is all but impossible if you’re not making ungodly amounts of money, but Charlotte? Nashville? San Antonio? Pretty manageable. The problem is though, those cities are going to shrink down too once the problem inevitably follows people there and the supply/demand for housing gets thrown out of whack.

      If you ask me, I think the place we settle nationally will be like Texas on steroids. Each region will have a handful of decent cities, a few big ones, and a good sized rural population. Hell, if you ask me, subpar internet is the only reason this hasn’t happened to a greater degree already. Just imagine how thrilled your average company would be if they could hire people for 10% less than they do now and the employee would be ecstatic about it. 80k a year isn’t shit in DC, but it’s a pretty good living in rural North Carolina.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

        My takeaway from this is a little different, I guess. I think what this person is saying has merit, but I think they’re underestimating just how fast the economy is changing. This whole idea that you have to be in a particular place to do a particular thing is quickly becoming outdated. Sure, you’re always going to have a certain percentage of jobs where people have to be physically present with one another, but how high is that percentage really? People are already receiving an increasingly large share of their medical and mental health care from remote sources, and I don’t even need to talk about purchasing consumer goods.

        Will the American city “die”? Probably not entirely, but I could certainly see them continuing to shrink as a share of the U.S. population and warp into something resembling large scale amusement parks.
        This...it's more economical and less stressful for me to commute into miami a few days a week and do the rest of my work from the house. I hate the traffic and politics of Broward and Dade counties.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Foster4Prez View Post

          The city isn’t going to die. But your second level cities will fade while third and forth tiers expand.

          Look at the growth places like Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, and Charlotte are seeing. Absolutely booming. Companies know that the hot young minds want walkable city experiences. They can’t attract people to bumfuck Kansas but they can move from DC to Nashville (see Discovery/Scripps) and save a fuckload on overhead while still having that same city draw in a much more affordable location.

          New York, LA, San Fran, DC, Atlanta, Chicago will always be major players.
          Kansas City has outgrown St. Louis and is completely renovating their downtown and expanding their airport to International(currently). Bad example... St, Louis on the other hand.......

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

            I don’t disagree with your perspective in the short term, but you have to ask yourself why those cities are actually growing. It’s not economic activity, an exciting night life, or any of that, it’s because people can effectively live a big city lifestyle there for a fraction of the price. You know first hand that trying to raise a family in DC is all but impossible if you’re not making ungodly amounts of money, but Charlotte? Nashville? San Antonio? Pretty manageable. The problem is though, those cities are going to shrink down too once the problem inevitably follows people there and the supply/demand for housing gets thrown out of whack.

            If you ask me, I think the place we settle nationally will be like Texas on steroids. Each region will have a handful of decent cities, a few big ones, and a good sized rural population. Hell, if you ask me, subpar internet is the only reason this hasn’t happened to a greater degree already. Just imagine how thrilled your average company would be if they could hire people for 10% less than they do now and the employee would be ecstatic about it. 80k a year isn’t shit in DC, but it’s a pretty good living in rural North Carolina.


            I think this is a fair take, but I think it will be a longer time till rural areas get the same level of internet that cities have now. Also, there’s a good bit of work playing jobs in cities that are in person only. I can’t speak for other cities but from what I recall reading the biggest industry (outside of Comcast providing shit support to rural areas) is medicine...basically all the nurses and doctors working in the many high quality hospitals we have in Philly. It’s a higher percent of the workforce here, and it can only be in person.

            Comment


            • #21
              Also, why would anyone want to live in a place where you have to take care of a lawn? What a fucking waste of time.


              http://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-...session-lawns/

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by ivegostdacityblues View Post



                I think this is a fair take, but I think it will be a longer time till rural areas get the same level of internet that cities have now. Also, there’s a good bit of work playing jobs in cities that are in person only. I can’t speak for other cities but from what I recall reading the biggest industry (outside of Comcast providing shit support to rural areas) is medicine...basically all the nurses and doctors working in the many high quality hospitals we have in Philly. It’s a higher percent of the workforce here, and it can only be in person.
                I don’t know, people said that about electricity too, but once the ball gets rolling and the profits starting coming in, companies are going to act fast. All it takes to turn a largely empty rural area into prime real estate is a handful of people with big money moving in and building some infrastructure. That’s happened a lot in central Ohio over the last 20 years, and is a big part of why cities like Detroit ended up dying off.

                As far as in person jobs go, it’s a smaller percentage than you might think and that number gets smaller every year. You’re never going to do away with essential services obviously, but most everything else can be done remotely. Philly might have a lot of that stuff now, but what happens when half the labor force lives 30 minutes outside of the city? Are they just going to sit on their ass treating Medicaid patients for pennies, or are they going to follow the money?

                I also think a lot of this comes down to how the aging millennial population pans out. If a large number of people in our age range (I’m assuming you’re a millennial too) straight up opt out of having kids, then what I’m talking about may never happen, but if they do? They’re not staying in the city. Traffic and crime are minor annoyances if you’re single, but they’re straight up deal breakers if you’re raising a family. Even if you take cost out of it entirely, you’re still fighting to get your kids into good schools every minute of your life and wondering whether or not your neighborhood will win the subsidized housing lottery. Nobody wants to put up with that shit, not when they can extend their commute, pay an HOA fee, and be done with it.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by ivegostdacityblues View Post
                  Also, why would anyone want to live in a place where you have to take care of a lawn? What a fucking waste of time.


                  http://freakonomics.com/podcast/how-...session-lawns/
                  My girlfriend would claw your eyes out for saying that. Seriously, her obsession with yard work and gardening is only matched by those guys who paint little die cast soldiers.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

                    I don’t know, people said that about electricity too, but once the ball gets rolling and the profits starting coming in, companies are going to act fast. All it takes to turn a largely empty rural area into prime real estate is a handful of people with big money moving in and building some infrastructure. That’s happened a lot in central Ohio over the last 20 years, and is a big part of why cities like Detroit ended up dying off.

                    As far as in person jobs go, it’s a smaller percentage than you might think and that number gets smaller every year. You’re never going to do away with essential services obviously, but most everything else can be done remotely. Philly might have a lot of that stuff now, but what happens when half the labor force lives 30 minutes outside of the city? Are they just going to sit on their ass treating Medicaid patients for pennies, or are they going to follow the money?

                    I also think a lot of this comes down to how the aging millennial population pans out. If a large number of people in our age range (I’m assuming you’re a millennial too) straight up opt out of having kids, then what I’m talking about may never happen, but if they do? They’re not staying in the city. Traffic and crime are minor annoyances if you’re single, but they’re straight up deal breakers if you’re raising a family. Even if you take cost out of it entirely, you’re still fighting to get your kids into good schools every minute of your life and wondering whether or not your neighborhood will win the subsidized housing lottery. Nobody wants to put up with that shit, not when they can extend their commute, pay an HOA fee, and be done with it.
                    I’m a living breathing example of the last paragraph.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Foster4Prez View Post

                      I’m a living breathing example of the last paragraph.
                      I’ve been to Silver Spring, it’s a great place to raise a family. DC with its “wrong block mother fucker” layout? Not so much.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

                        I’ve been to Silver Spring, it’s a great place to raise a family. DC with its “wrong block mother fucker” layout? Not so much.
                        Meh. Silver Spring is a dying community. It’s Bethesda Lite.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Deschet View Post

                          Meh. Silver Spring is a dying community. It’s Bethesda Lite.
                          Dying community by what standard? I know shit gets really boring when a bunch of white people in their 30's with kids move in, but it's not exactly Compton.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I don't know why that comment pissed me off so much, but I'd really like to show you pictures of WV sometime. There's entire towns in this state that are completely abandoned, hell, a few years ago one got flooded so bad that everybody just said "fuck it" and moved out because nobody liked it there anyway. I haven't traveled too much, but I've seen enough to know what bad looks like, and... yeah, median household income of over 80k when the national average is 61? A lot of government employees living normal lives? That should never be shit on. Not when you have several states that are basically in ruins because everybody stopped caring about them 40 years ago, if they ever did at all.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Deschet View Post

                              Meh. Silver Spring is a dying community. It’s Bethesda Lite.
                              Bro. There are roughly 5,000 apts currently under construction in DTSS and the downtown area just got a $10m investment for a facelift.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Foster4Prez View Post

                                Bro. There are roughly 5,000 apts currently under construction in DTSS and the downtown area just got a $10m investment for a facelift.
                                Okay. Fair. I haven’t been there in a decade.

                                Comment

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