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What’s the largest polling deficit a candidate has overcome?

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  • What’s the largest polling deficit a candidate has overcome?

    ie the furthest a candidate has been behind and still won? Can’t be more than 3-5 points right?

  • #2
    HW in 1988 overcame a double-digit deficit and beat Dukakis. I think in August, he was polling ahead by about 17 points nationally.

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    • #3
      Aside from 1988, I’m thinking Dewey v. Truman.

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      • #4
        in march 2016, trump was an 11 point dog to hillary. And thru most of august she led by at least 6.

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        • #5
          It's also worth noting that 1988 is nothing like 2020. Polling was far more erratic and people simply didn't have a strong opinion on Dukakis or know much about him. Once Lee Atwater started tearing into him in what would become arguably the nastiest presidential campaign in a generation, Dukakis's numbers started to plummet. Reagan called him an invalid. They drug up Willie Horton, which wasn't even really Dukakis's fault. At the final debate, the very first question that was asked was by Bernard Shaw, who asked Dukakis if he'd still oppose capital punishment if his wife had been raped and murdered. The first question was about a scenario where his wife was raped and murdered!

          But Trump has been brutal towards Biden for months now and nothing is sticking. People don't believe him on anything and tune him out. So I think Biden's lead is safer than Dukakis's.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by DPR View Post
            It's also worth noting that 1988 is nothing like 2020. Polling was far more erratic and people simply didn't have a strong opinion on Dukakis or know much about him. Once Lee Atwater started tearing into him in what would become arguably the nastiest presidential campaign in a generation, Dukakis's numbers started to plummet. Reagan called him an invalid. They drug up Willie Horton, which wasn't even really Dukakis's fault. At the final debate, the very first question that was asked was by Bernard Shaw, who asked Dukakis if he'd still oppose capital punishment if his wife had been raped and murdered. The first question was about a scenario where his wife was raped and murdered!

            But Trump has been brutal towards Biden for months now and nothing is sticking. People don't believe him on anything and tune him out. So I think Biden's lead is safer than Dukakis's.
            Biden’s biggest threat to his candidacy has always been himself. As Ben Shapiro recently pointed out, Donald Trump didn’t win in 2016, Hillary lost. She totally fucking blew it in a wide variety of ways on top of having a trail of dirt behind her a mile long. Biden is going to have to fuck up really bad to put himself in a similar situation.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by DynastyFSU2 View Post
              in march 2016, trump was an 11 point dog to hillary. And thru most of august she led by at least 6.
              On July 28, 2016 the RCP had Trump ahead of Clinton by 0.9%

              https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html

              Polling was a roller coaster in 2016. She was +11 in late March, -1 in late July, +8 in mid-August, +1 in mid-September, +7 in mid-October and back to +1 the day before the election.

              Trump hasn't been within 5 points since mid-May against Biden and is currently -9, a 10 point swing from four years ago.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by DPR View Post

                On July 28, 2016 the RCP had Trump ahead of Clinton by 0.9%

                https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html

                Polling was a roller coaster in 2016. She was +11 in late March, -1 in late July, +8 in mid-August, +1 in mid-September, +7 in mid-October and back to +1 the day before the election.

                Trump hasn't been within 5 points since mid-May against Biden and is currently -9, a 10 point swing from four years ago.
                Yeah, in no way are the two races comparable. I’m probably the biggest “polls are bullshit” proponent on the board (at least as they pertain to presidential elections), and even I can acknowledge what’s obviously going on. Trump is in deep, deep shit right now and barring a Biden meltdown between now and November, he’s going to get wrecked. Like worst landslide since 84 wrecked.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

                  Biden’s biggest threat to his candidacy has always been himself. As Ben Shapiro recently pointed out, Donald Trump didn’t win in 2016, Hillary lost. She totally fucking blew it in a wide variety of ways on top of having a trail of dirt behind her a mile long. Biden is going to have to fuck up really bad to put himself in a similar situation.
                  I know everyone here loves to hate on Hillary, but if you look at that campaign from an unbiased perspective, she actually had a LOT going against her that wasn't even really under her control. It was always Trump's to lose and he barely won.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

                    Yeah, in no way are the two races comparable. I’m probably the biggest “polls are bullshit” proponent on the board (at least as they pertain to presidential elections), and even I can acknowledge what’s obviously going on. Trump is in deep, deep shit right now and barring a Biden meltdown between now and November, he’s going to get wrecked. Like worst landslide since 84 wrecked.
                    I'm still fully expecting "chaos" to reign supreme in November. Mail-in ballots are going to be challenged. Polls are going to be closed. Lines are going to be long. There is also the outside chance that Trump's pick for USPS manages to ruin the post office before the election, further complicating matters. Then you have electronic voting machines with no auditing in states like Georgia and Tennessee.

                    It has to be a Biden blowout. If it is close, Trump will challenge it and that will get really really ugly.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by DPR View Post

                      I know everyone here loves to hate on Hillary, but if you look at that campaign from an unbiased perspective, she actually had a LOT going against her that wasn't even really under her control. It was always Trump's to lose and he barely won.
                      That’s a very funny way of looking at it. I think she was just a horrible candidate.

                      People just hate Hillary Clinton as a person, because she’s Bill Clinton without the charisma and charm. Hell, my own mother, a lifelong Democrat that was loyal through thick and thin hated voting for her. Did she? Yes, but she bitched about it constantly.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by DPR View Post

                        I'm still fully expecting "chaos" to reign supreme in November. Mail-in ballots are going to be challenged. Polls are going to be closed. Lines are going to be long. There is also the outside chance that Trump's pick for USPS manages to ruin the post office before the election, further complicating matters. Then you have electronic voting machines with no auditing in states like Georgia and Tennessee.

                        It has to be a Biden blowout. If it is close, Trump will challenge it and that will get really really ugly.
                        Even if it isn't he'll challenge it. This is the same guy who made a false claim and had a fake investigation into "millions" of illegal votes. Then no one saw anything from the investigation. His sheep ate it up, and they will again. Just like they do all the other false, ignorant, hateful shit he spews.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by DPR View Post

                          I'm still fully expecting "chaos" to reign supreme in November. Mail-in ballots are going to be challenged. Polls are going to be closed. Lines are going to be long. There is also the outside chance that Trump's pick for USPS manages to ruin the post office before the election, further complicating matters. Then you have electronic voting machines with no auditing in states like Georgia and Tennessee.

                          It has to be a Biden blowout. If it is close, Trump will challenge it and that will get really really ugly.
                          Yeah, I’m not seeing it. You have to understand, if what seemingly every poll is saying is true, there’s a lot of people against Trump right now. Those people work polling stations and process ballots too, and I think if there is fuckery afoot, there’s going to be 500 whistleblowers before the final votes are even counted. You can steal a close election, but beyond a certain point, it just becomes impossible.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by tOSUfanboi2 View Post

                            That’s a very funny way of looking at it. I think she was just a horrible candidate.

                            People just hate Hillary Clinton as a person, because she’s Bill Clinton without the charisma and charm. Hell, my own mother, a lifelong Democrat that was loyal through thick and thin hated voting for her. Did she? Yes, but she bitched about it constantly.
                            Like I said, not a lot of that was actually her fault. She had a smear campaign going against her since the 90s.

                            But even taking away stuff like that, if you dig into the factors facing her campaign it was going to be an uphill climb. After the DNC hack, their internal polling numbers in swing states was exposed and the firm Cambridge Analytica started running ads in those vulnerable areas. It isn't fully known if the Trump campaign was aware of this (collusion) but they absolutely had that data stolen and used against them.

                            I mean, that alone could have been the push considering she lost by less than a point in 4 swing states.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by BChris View Post

                              Even if it isn't he'll challenge it. This is the same guy who made a false claim and had a fake investigation into "millions" of illegal votes. Then no one saw anything from the investigation. His sheep ate it up, and they will again. Just like they do all the other false, ignorant, hateful shit he spews.
                              Probably because you can’t prove voter fraud in states that let everyone vote without checking anything. I’ll trust the vote tallies in every state when we have nationwide voter ID (and yes, I support it being 100% free and easily accessible for all Americans), but until then? Certain places are suspect.

                              Do I think it changes the result? Not really, I think 95% of it happens in states that one side or the other is going to carry regardless and what happens elsewhere is too small scale to matter, but I do think it skews the popular vote.

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