Who is up for a wager?

[JTrain]

Trump is likely to win again for the same reasons he won the first time:

1. Incredibly weak democrat field
2. The group that was tired of being called racists have been called racists for 4 straight years instead of just one election cycle.
3. The democrats have doubled down on their message of "we on the coasts know better than everyone else, look at how elite we are...vote our way or you are a Nazi"
4. Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what, and in this case the only real thing you can say is that he acts like a petulant child...but in terms of running the country, not much has actually changed.
5. Most undecideds are not going to buy the SJW nonsensical talking points.

This all could have been avoided had the democrats not wheeled out THAT group of nothings as their potential nominees.

[FuqMizzou]

Trump is likely to win again for the same reasons he won the first time:

1. Incredibly weak democrat field
2. The group that was tired of being called racists have been called racists for 4 straight years instead of just one election cycle.
3. The democrats have doubled down on their message of "we on the coasts know better than everyone else, look at how elite we are...vote our way or you are a Nazi"
4. Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what, and in this case the only real thing you can say is that he acts like a petulant child...but in terms of running the country, not much has actually changed.
5. Most undecideds are not going to buy the SJW nonsensical talking points.

This all could have been avoided had the democrats not wheeled out THAT group of nothings as their potential nominees.

Jesus, what a terrible field.... It's like they held the NFL draft and they went with 7th rounders in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

[Deschet]

Trump is likely to win again for the same reasons he won the first time:

1. Incredibly weak democrat field
2. The group that was tired of being called racists have been called racists for 4 straight years instead of just one election cycle.
3. The democrats have doubled down on their message of "we on the coasts know better than everyone else, look at how elite we are...vote our way or you are a Nazi"
4. Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what, and in this case the only real thing you can say is that he acts like a petulant child...but in terms of running the country, not much has actually changed.
5. Most undecideds are not going to buy the SJW nonsensical talking points.

This all could have been avoided had the democrats not wheeled out THAT group of nothings as their potential nominees.

I don’t disagree on most of this. But, in terms of running the country, a lot has changed. We have a President who has become unhinged. It’s past the point of being a petulant child denied his snow cone. He’s elicited foreign powers to help him politically. Multiple, multiple times. He’s called for the hanging of those whom blew the whistle on it. He’s called for those that criticize him to be impeached or, if you’re in the opposition party, he’s called them traitors. On some level, I’d like to think that most everyone who’s not a dyed-in-the-wool Trump fan can at least agree that this nonsense should not be tolerated. And again, this is Trump who still needs votes. Imagine what he’ll do if he no longer needs those votes. Because holy fuckballs.

[ivegostdacityblues]

Trump is likely to win again for the same reasons he won the first time:

1. Incredibly weak democrat field
2. The group that was tired of being called racists have been called racists for 4 straight years instead of just one election cycle.
3. The democrats have doubled down on their message of "we on the coasts know better than everyone else, look at how elite we are...vote our way or you are a Nazi"
4. Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what, and in this case the only real thing you can say is that he acts like a petulant child...but in terms of running the country, not much has actually changed.
5. Most undecideds are not going to buy the SJW nonsensical talking points.

This all could have been avoided had the democrats not wheeled out THAT group of nothings as their potential nominees.

Most of this is completely fair, and what worries me. Point 4 I disagree with the second half. Some stuff hasn’t changed, but IMO it’s a major problem long term to normalize Trump’s behavior with foreign powers. Corruption always has existed in politics here (and everywhere) on some level but the the current events are far beyond normal...and it became normal operating procedure for a US President to openly solicit foreign support for investigating political opponents that can do a fuckton of damage to our political system.

That said your average voter who doesn’t keep up with it probably doesn’t care that much.

[Deschet]

That said your average voter who doesn’t keep up with it probably doesn’t care that much.

Trump covered this potentiality early on when he labeled the media that doesn’t cover him in a positive way as the enemy of the American People. He doubled down on this with his Orwellian statement that, if it doesn’t come from his mouth, his base should not believe it.

Just for shits and giggles, I perused the comments section of one or two of the FoxNews articles “covering” the emerging events and... holy fuck. Most of the people commenting are absolutely fucking insane. Responses ranged from the PBRish equating of liberals to millennials and calling them cucks, to calling for a violent revolution against Democrats, right on up to openly hoping Barr arrests the whistleblowers and their lawyers and hanging them.

[sctrojan]

Trump is likely to win again for the same reasons he won the first time:

1. Incredibly weak democrat field
2. The group that was tired of being called racists have been called racists for 4 straight years instead of just one election cycle.
3. The democrats have doubled down on their message of "we on the coasts know better than everyone else, look at how elite we are...vote our way or you are a Nazi"
4. Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what, and in this case the only real thing you can say is that he acts like a petulant child...but in terms of running the country, not much has actually changed.
5. Most undecideds are not going to buy the SJW nonsensical talking points.

This all could have been avoided had the democrats not wheeled out THAT group of nothings as their potential nominees.

He will only win if retards like you vote for a Gary Johnson just because you want to vote your conscience.

Sometimes you have to hold your nose and vote for the option that will get rid of the odious cretin occupying the WH.

[DynastyFSU2]

He will only win if retards like you vote for a Gary Johnson just because you want to vote your conscience.

Sometimes you have to hold your nose and vote for the option that will get rid of the odious cretin occupying the WH.

Yes, but not if the alternative is promising to destroy the economy. I mean, trump may get a recession, but warren, Biden, and sanders are promising they plan on wrecking the economy.

[sctrojan]

Yes, but not if the alternative is promising to destroy the economy. I mean, trump may get a recession, but warren, Biden, and sanders are promising they plan on wrecking the economy.

Destroy the economy? Trump's doing that right now

[Nash]

Trump is likely to win again for the same reasons he won the first time:

1. Incredibly weak democrat field
2. The group that was tired of being called racists have been called racists for 4 straight years instead of just one election cycle.
3. The democrats have doubled down on their message of "we on the coasts know better than everyone else, look at how elite we are...vote our way or you are a Nazi"
4. Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what, and in this case the only real thing you can say is that he acts like a petulant child...but in terms of running the country, not much has actually changed.
5. Most undecideds are not going to buy the SJW nonsensical talking points.

This all could have been avoided had the democrats not wheeled out THAT group of nothings as their potential nominees.

First off, I'm not ready to predict anything that is going to happen a year from now. We'll probably have a clearer picture next summer, but I'm going to guess the race will be close, regardless* of what happens.

*unless Trump Nixons himself

Like others, I don't disagree with most of what you say -- but I'm not sure that those things point to a likely Trump victory.

1. You might as well have said the same thing about the Republican 2016 field. I think it's easy to perceive a large and relatively open field as 'weak,' but I think once it is whittled down to 3-4 serious contenders, it won't look as weak or chaotic.
2. While it is true that Democrats use the R-word to the point where it has lost a lot of its meaning, part of the issue is that there is a pretty decent sized sect of Trump supporters that are very fucking racist. Not people that just voted for Trump and are OK with his policies and appointments -- but the ones that are very in-your-face about their support of him have a much higher than average volume of racists in their ranks.
3. Eh...both parties exhibit quite a bit of holier than thou behavior -- they just present it in different ways. One one side it's carbon taxes and on the other it's abortion bans. Neither of them really wants you making your own decisions.
4. You are right that Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what. You might have had a few jump off the wagon in the first year or so after he took office...but anyone remaining on the bandwagon isn't going to be fazed by anything that will happen between now and the 2020 election. I strongly disagree with the second part of your statement. Trump could potentially fundamentally change the office of the presidency. The way he uses twitter to attack people and address the nation is unlike anything we have seen before. The way he treats the press, even if he's not the first president to have a bad relationship with them, is far beyond anything we have seen before. There is a very visible hostility surrounding the administration that directs its ire to anyone that dares oppose it. There is a defiance of following established precedent and procedures in pretty much all aspects of functioning. And then, there is Trump's adulation for anyone who wields any sort of authoritarian power. Is he going to declare himself dictator or god king? I don't think so. But does he secretly wish he had that sort of power? I don't think you can question that, given the way he acts. It goes far beyond acting like a crying toddler. It is the complete lack of sophistication, sound strategy, savvy, and grace that is required of a politician to hold that office. The biggest problem I have with both the Mueller/Russia probe and the Ukraine situation is not whether he actually solicited or received help from a foreign entity, it's that it's quite evident that he doesn't know what the law is and that it's fucking illegal. Donald Trump is a giant sledgehammer, and the only way he knows how to fix problems is to swing wildly.
5. That's completely debateable. The SJW wing of the Democratic party certainly has loads of nonsense along with it...but this administration has loads of nonsense as well. Like #3, I think this is a matter of which side you prefer or default to. I wouldn't doubt if a lot of undecideds aren't going to make a decision at all and choose to just stay home. Hell, depending on who the candidates are, I might do just that. I'll vote for all of the other offices except president -- or I'll write in or vote for some meaningless alternative party candidate.


One thing that I am curious about with the upcoming election is Trump's base of support in the key states he won. It's hard to imagine that he's rounded up more support than he had previously, given how divisive he has been as president. Can he grow his base? Does he have a strategy to do so? One big problem he seems to have is that he's losing quite a bit of the educated white female vote. That's not a voting bloc that the Republicans want to alienate. What does the margin look like in the battleground states if Trump doesn't gain (assuming he doesn't lose) support? It's not a growing demographic.

If I had to hedge my bet on any one issue, it would be the economy. If the economy keeps its head above water, then I think he has a decent shot at reelection. If we are entering a recession at any point in 2020, I think it will be incredibly hard for him to win.

[JTrain]

First off, I'm not ready to predict anything that is going to happen a year from now. We'll probably have a clearer picture next summer, but I'm going to guess the race will be close, regardless* of what happens.

*unless Trump Nixons himself

Like others, I don't disagree with most of what you say -- but I'm not sure that those things point to a likely Trump victory.

1. You might as well have said the same thing about the Republican 2016 field. I think it's easy to perceive a large and relatively open field as 'weak,' but I think once it is whittled down to 3-4 serious contenders, it won't look as weak or chaotic.
2. While it is true that Democrats use the R-word to the point where it has lost a lot of its meaning, part of the issue is that there is a pretty decent sized sect of Trump supporters that are very fucking racist. Not people that just voted for Trump and are OK with his policies and appointments -- but the ones that are very in-your-face about their support of him have a much higher than average volume of racists in their ranks.
3. Eh...both parties exhibit quite a bit of holier than thou behavior -- they just present it in different ways. One one side it's carbon taxes and on the other it's abortion bans. Neither of them really wants you making your own decisions.
4. You are right that Trump lovers are going to follow him no matter what. You might have had a few jump off the wagon in the first year or so after he took office...but anyone remaining on the bandwagon isn't going to be fazed by anything that will happen between now and the 2020 election. I strongly disagree with the second part of your statement. Trump could potentially fundamentally change the office of the presidency. The way he uses twitter to attack people and address the nation is unlike anything we have seen before. The way he treats the press, even if he's not the first president to have a bad relationship with them, is far beyond anything we have seen before. There is a very visible hostility surrounding the administration that directs its ire to anyone that dares oppose it. There is a defiance of following established precedent and procedures in pretty much all aspects of functioning. And then, there is Trump's adulation for anyone who wields any sort of authoritarian power. Is he going to declare himself dictator or god king? I don't think so. But does he secretly wish he had that sort of power? I don't think you can question that, given the way he acts. It goes far beyond acting like a crying toddler. It is the complete lack of sophistication, sound strategy, savvy, and grace that is required of a politician to hold that office. The biggest problem I have with both the Mueller/Russia probe and the Ukraine situation is not whether he actually solicited or received help from a foreign entity, it's that it's quite evident that he doesn't know what the law is and that it's fucking illegal. Donald Trump is a giant sledgehammer, and the only way he knows how to fix problems is to swing wildly.
5. That's completely debateable. The SJW wing of the Democratic party certainly has loads of nonsense along with it...but this administration has loads of nonsense as well. Like #3, I think this is a matter of which side you prefer or default to. I wouldn't doubt if a lot of undecideds aren't going to make a decision at all and choose to just stay home. Hell, depending on who the candidates are, I might do just that. I'll vote for all of the other offices except president -- or I'll write in or vote for some meaningless alternative party candidate.


One thing that I am curious about with the upcoming election is Trump's base of support in the key states he won. It's hard to imagine that he's rounded up more support than he had previously, given how divisive he has been as president. Can he grow his base? Does he have a strategy to do so? One big problem he seems to have is that he's losing quite a bit of the educated white female vote. That's not a voting bloc that the Republicans want to alienate. What does the margin look like in the battleground states if Trump doesn't gain (assuming he doesn't lose) support? It's not a growing demographic.

If I had to hedge my bet on any one issue, it would be the economy. If the economy keeps its head above water, then I think he has a decent shot at reelection. If we are entering a recession at any point in 2020, I think it will be incredibly hard for him to win.

1. I did. I made it clear that only Kasich or Huntsman were worthy of being President from that field.
2. Yes, there are racist people who vote for Trump. Just not in the numbers that democrats believe...Im sure this in and of itself is a racist comment.
3. Obviously...the point remains.
4. You could have stopped by saying "you are right"
5. This was not a "but what about" point...I am not saying that the Trump administration has not done/said stupid things. They have, and will continue to do it because at this point they believe he could rape a puppy on national tv and still get re-elected. And what Im saying, is that may actually be true.

I know this...I wont vote for any of the people that are currently running. Cant sully my vote record with something like that.